As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the decision to add or subtract from a team is usually made by the standings.
Every year, however, there are bubble teams that are close to the playoff race but haven’t necessarily proved themselves in the win/loss column, leaving their front offices with a tougher decision to make.
ESPN has identified eight such teams, and with the Aug. 1 deadline exactly two weeks away, time is running out.
“They’re really making decisions the last weekend before the trade deadline,” Philadelphia Phillies president Dave Dombrowski said. “You wait as long as you can.
“You always want to make the playoffs because once you make it, we know anything can happen. However, and I’m just speaking for me, you have to be realistic with yourself. Do you have a club that’s good enough to advance, or in your heart, do you really not feel that way? It’s an important distinction.”
Adding to the challenge this season is the fact that the first-place team in the AL Central is hovering around .500, while the last-place team in the AL East is six games over. That will undoubtedly lead to varying degrees of going for it or electing to trade away veterans. And, according to Dombrowski, it makes it even more important for front-office decision-makers to understand their own team’s circumstances rather than relying just on a number of games they trail in the standings.
“Every market is different,” he said. “Every owner is different. Every team is different. You’re not the unilateral decision-maker. What happens if you’re with a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 10 years? That can be huge. That can be different than a team that’s in it all the time but is having a down year.”
With all that in mind, ESPN employed the services of a current MLB assistant general manager (whose team is not on the bubble) to help decide the fate of our eight bubble teams. Here’s his take.
Minnesota Twins
Record: 48-47
Odds to make the postseason: 81.6%
Verdict: Small addition
Needs: Right-handed hitter
In our exec’s words: The Twins could use help against left-handed pitching, but mostly they need to be healthy. If their best players act like it, they can make a run, but there’s no need to trade away their best prospects.
Cleveland Guardians
Record: 46-48
Postseason odds: 16.4%
Verdict: Stand pat
In our exec’s words: The Guardians simply aren’t going to replace injured starters Shane Bieber or Cal Quantrill (or Triston McKenzie) with blockbuster deals. If they get healthy, they’ll have a shot. They stood pat last year and won the division easily.
From the Braves’ spectacular first half to the A’s unfathomable start, let’s take a look at every team’s performance.